According to the study, which was conducted by the developer of tools to analyze the blockchain Chainalysis, in the period from December 2017 to April 2018 speculative turnover of bitcoins increased by $ 30 billion. This can partly explain the downward trend in the value of cryptocurrencies since the beginning of this year.
According to analysts, it was an unprecedented sale, which is unlikely to happen again soon.
In November 2017, two-thirds of the bitcoins belonged to long-term investors, whereas today the number of bitcoins that are in the hands of the traders and also used by services to implement the transaction, equal to the number of bitcoins to be used as a long term investment.
Analysts report that the majority of bitcoins concentrated in the hands of a small number of players. However, with the influx of new speculators, the situation began to change. Five million BTC (or one third) is controlled by the 1,000 largest long-term investors and 600 of the largest speculators. The purse of each such speculator contains at least 200 BTC, while the purse of the investor is at least 700 bitcoins.
It is believed that new speculators, the number of which increased from December last year to 57%, a negative impact on the price of bitcoin, causing the price of the cryptocurrency continues to decline. In order for the price stabilized or speculators need to take a portion of coins they have in a long-term investment, or the demand for bitcoin is expected to increase due to the influx of new speculators or new ways of using bitcoin. In addition, from 2.3 to 3.7 million bitcoins are considered to be lost, which reduces the actual capitalization of bitcoin 13-22%.
As of April 2018 from 21 million coins that will ever exist, not even mined about 4 million have lost at least 2.3 million of bitcoins, 7.4 million coins belongs to long-term investors, of whom 1.5 million may be lost, and 5.1 million belongs to speculators, 2.2 million is used for transactions, including cryptocurrency exchanges.
From September 2015 to April 2017, the majority of bitcoins were long term investors. Starting in April 2017 and April 2018, the number Petkanov used for speculation grew from 14% to 35%. This suggests that investors cashed out of their assets and now those bitcoins are in the hands of new users who use them for speculation or for transactions instead of trying to keep them as long-term investments.
The number of bitcoins used for making transactions over time remains stable and is at 15%.
With regard to bitcoins, which are long-term investment, the situation looks as follows: about 1.6 million kept in purses, which contain from 10,000 to 100,000 coins or more; about 2 million (of which approximately 500 000 can be lost) is stored on the wallets containing from 1,000 to 10,000 BTC; about the same amount stored in purses, the balance of which is 100-1000 BTC; and, finally, about 750,000 BTC is on purses, the balance of which no more than 10 coins.
However, not all these wallets active: probably about 1.5 million bitcoins that are on the wallets with no activity after 2016, bezotvetno lost. This is mainly wallets, the balance of which is from 100 to 10 000 BTC.
What is lost bitcoins? These include coins that will never be available. Usually this happens due to the fact that the keys to the wallets have been lost and cannot be recovered. According to the methodology analysts Chainalysis, lost bitcoins are considered to be located in purses, which in 2014 did not make any transaction.
In addition continued production of new bitcoins, the distribution of which is extremely difficult to calculate, but they also influence the current price.