Last week made market participants nervous, because the attempts to overcome the previous highs were not successful. Closer to Friday the stock market went to the moderate sales with weak trading activity, and on Sunday almost turned into a «panic sell».
Summary of the week shown by the red area with more than 10% losses for most capitalized coins. The surprise is the fact that the previous momentum with the growth of capitalization of the cryptocurrencies was almost leveled in one day, but maintains a robust optimism that some of the flagships has not broken key levels of support.
The news was negative, it became known that the Commission on trade commodity futures (CFTC) suspects Bitstamp, Coinbase, ItBit Kraken and in manipulating the price of bitcoin. As a result, it influenced the course of trading futures bitcoin traded on the CME and CBOE. This news has been the driver of recent sales and, judging by the decrease in capitalization, the downward trend of the stock market can continue.
Market capitalization of crypto currency is kept below $300 billion, and at the time of writing mark was kept in the neighborhood of $297 billion. This, in turn, sends a negative signal, since no significant cash infusions for shopping technically oversold coins.
Now mid-term technical analysis:
BTC/USD: near key support
Bitcoin (BTC) on the daily timeframe (D1) konsolidiruyutsya in the triangle which was formed at the beginning of February. Inhibits the price chart reliable support in the area of $6500 (the base figure). Trading history shows that the graph of the price repeatedly tested the price value and in case of breaking this minimum will release from the formed shape. This can be considered a negative scenario, because this opens the prospect of reaching such levels as $4900 and $3000. In addition, supports the pessimism of the recent sharp reversal from the local resistance level at around $7800, due to the negative news background. Contrary to expectations, the growth of bitcoin and attempts to turn against the previous correction, yet risks of further decline still remain.
With regard to the wave structure of Elliott’s, it was scrapped in favor of a wave Y. the Recent decline of more than 10% has formed another driving wave, and only the support in the neighborhood of $6500 while that is a reliable technical Outpost, which is backed up by minimal values of this year.
If there is a continuation of the decline, and resulting in the breakdown of the base of the triangle, bitcoin will lock in lower trade framework with targets such as $4900 and $3000, in the medium-term prospects.
ETH/USD: one more wave down
The ether (ETH) on the daily timeframe (D1) is in a trading range of $630 — $500. As in the case of bitcoin and other coins, broadcast on Sunday showed a decrease of 10%, thus creating pessimism among market participants. Inhibits the price chart support around $500 and in case of its breakdown will be fixing in a lower trading range in the medium-term prospects.
If you look at the situation from the perspective of Elliott waves, the recent decline has created even more momentum in favor of the down wave. Therefore, the wave can find its end in the sideways correction, where the last wave comes to the ground the previous descending wave.
To summarize, you should pay attention to the level of around $500, since its break will trigger a new wave of sales. In this case, the signal is given to the achievement of the next support at around $380.
LTC/USD below the support
Litecoin (LTC) on the daily timeframe (D1) surely broke the support at $112, then stuck in a lower trading limits. It is also seen that the «digital silver» with the recent formation of another wave of sales on the basis of news, said the development of the driving wave C. Thus opened a medium-term goal of further reduction in the range of$ 50.
Also pay attention to the wave structure of Elliott. Since the correction has a pronounced three-wave start structure and appeared to be deep, as in other cryptocurrencies, the risks remain for further downside.
In addition, it should be noted that litecoin shows the output of the formed triangle and it serves as a negative signal, so technically there are still risks of a steady decline throughout the month. In case of realization of this scenario the objective in the area of support of $50.
XRP/USD H4: continue to wave
Ripple (XRP) on the daily timeframe (D1) after a sharp rise began to consolidate in a trading range of $0.71637 – $0.4737. Inhibits the price chart strong resistance around $0.71637. Additionally, the ripple was under pressure, but this time, not as much as other cryptocurrencies. Ripple is not reached before the Foundation of the previous pulse, and it is a positive signal from the point of view of technical analysis. Therefore, the support for this coin, while not serving as «a transit point where to go.»
From the perspective of Elliott waves formed the inner structure of the pulse, and in case of breaking support around $0.4737 will the further formation of wave C. And finally, if the news next week will put pressure on the liquidity of the cryptocurrency, then ripple will not be left behind.
XMR/USD: important level is passed
Monero (XMR) on the daily timeframe (D1) continues to be within the downward trend. The price chart broke above the important support level at $163, thereby accelerated the decline. It is also necessary to consider that monero and other cryptocurrencies out of the triangle, so the risk of further decline remains the center of attention.
With regard to the wave structure, we see the development of a driving wave Y protracted correction. However, the exit of the triangle can only speed up the development of wave Y, therefore, it should be noted the long-term goal where the coin can reach is to support around $80.