Last week at the cryptocurrency market were noted in the red zone, and only on Sunday began moving up. During the week almost all popular coins showed a decrease of 10-20%. However, from the point of view of technical analysis, this decline can not be called out of the ordinary, since most capitalized cryptocurrency came out for their important lows.
If we consider the news of last week in more detail, it becomes obvious that the cryptocurrency market is experiencing considerable pressure. In the future, statements of regulators, and not once will the stock market fever. Therefore, the time of turbulence is not yet completed, and the completion of the Chinese new year has not changed the situation radically. Although attempts were, but only within the speculative trading. With regard to purchases for the long term, there are still risks pitfalls in the technical and political part, and investors, judging from the current situation, soon expanded the market in the right direction.
As for the news, you should pay attention to the message from the Manager of the assets of the bankrupt in 2014 MtGox exchange. It became known that, Nobuaki Kobayashi for six months sold 35 000 BTC and BCH are slightly smaller. Total sales of Fiat amounted to about $400 million According to the Governor, these measures were a necessary step for the agreed settlement of obligations. At the moment he is running still a considerable sum, and sales will continue. In fact, this surprise has become a significant argument for large buyers to postpone purchases of bitcoins to clarify the situation.
Now technical analysis:
BTC/USD: a double top is already behind us
Bitcoin (BTC) in the four-hour period is not going to go below the support at $8375, which says it is willing to turn in favor of new growth. Also on this level is formed «double bottom», which is technically hints at a reversal. In the case of the positive scenario, opens the prospect of the development of pulse waves. The focus can be level 10384 dollars.
It is also important to note that the price chart in the «digital gold» is a new corrective phase A-B-C. And the last impulse wave 5 was «truncated», that is, unable to overcome the top of impulse wave 3. So the technical picture of the chart suggests that until the end of March can expect a wide trading range. At least growth in terms of wave B next week is quite possible.
But do not forget about the risks in emerging markets, the implementation of a negative scenario will see the attraction of bitcoin to support $8375. Technically, it is an important level, and in case of breakdown of pessimism can only increase.
ETH/USD H4: downtrend
The ether (ETH) steadily gravitated to the support level of $557 is still a negative signal because the asset is part of a downward trend. It is not excluded that the price can cover the designated target and to gain a foothold in lower trade under a $557 — $336. Support in the area of $668 technically holding back the onslaught of the bears, and in the case of steady growth the focus will be the level of $780.
From the point of view of Elliott wave development occurs within the composite correction W-X-Y. Such a situation occurred because of the apparent unwillingness of the broadcast to go beyond the downward trend. Therefore, in my opinion, this cryptocurrency will be able to show downward movement. A temporary increase may be in the framework of the five-wave structure, or in the area of wave 4.
For Ethereum in the medium term may negatively influence the opinion of the developers that predict recovery following a large-scale renovation (hardwork Constantinople) only at the end of the year. Earlier, his conduct was previously planned for the summer.
LTC/USD H4: a new trend?
Litecoin (LTC) is trying to reverse from the support level of around $160. In the case of strong growth, we can expect consolidation above the level of $180 with the subsequent tendency for higher trading limits. The first goal with a positive scenario is in the neighborhood of $216.
However, the «digital silver» is in the correctional subframe A-B-C. Therefore a break of the key resistance near $180 will give a signal to the formation of a new impulse wave.
If you look at the price chart from the point of view of the Fibonacci levels, the litecoin confidently pushed off from the resistance near 0.618, which technically serves as a trusted and reliable signal in favour of growth.
When implementing a negative scenario, one can expect to achieve the $160 from his breakdown. Then it will be a signal to the movement strictly according to the trend.
XRP/USD H4: important level is passed
RIPL (XRP) confidently broke the support at $0.8707, which is a negative signal. In other words, the «psychological level» is passed. At the moment, the prospect of attaining support in the neighborhood of $0.5675. In addition, you can see the finding chart within the downtrend, and this reinforces the bearish sentiment.
Terms of Elliott waves, one can see the development of a new downward momentum. Thus, a new wave of selling from resistance near $0.8707 may cause traders continue to focus on the decline, at least until a new target in the neighborhood of $0.5675.
Levels Fibonacii coincide with these levels as $0.5675 $0.2080, this neighborhood enhances their importance in the weeklong run. Therefore, these levels may be relevant targets in case of further decline.
DSH/USD H4: in the new range
Dash (DSH) is technically repeating the bitcoin and litecoin. At the moment, the limiting level is around $450, and technically he «will not allow» continue to sell. If this level will continue purchase, then you can expect the gravity to the resistance in the neighborhood of $550. Breach of this level will allow you to exit formed part of the downward trend.
If you look at the situation from the point of view of the Fibonacci levels, the output at the level of 0.618 will be a good signal to buy. But the wave structure of Elliott’s not ready to give such a signal, as the price chart is the momentum ativandosage movement. At the moment, formed a corrective wave 4 (target $550), but after it can begin the final wave in the downward momentum. So in the next few weeks you can still expect a serious wave of sales. And finally, dash generates a composite correction within the W X Y is another argument in favor of the movement of the trend.