The past week was marked by a rich news background on the market of cryptocurrencies, however, most of them could be the reason for reducing the «digital gold». Also, there is a perception among traders that the Christmas eve poured «oil on the fire» as a factor in fixing the positions of, and thereby gave rise to a seasonal factor in developing the market. The main factor of pressure on the price could be the closing of positions after the launch of futures on bitcoin and bitcoin in the game against the CME and CBOE.
It is important to note that the approach is at 20 000 dollars for bitcoin was viewed by many analysts as the limit of growth, and indeed he began a strong correction movement. Let’s consider everything in order.
BTC/USD D1: started phase correction?
Throughout the year, bitcoin has demonstrated continuous growth, generating confidence to the bulls-investors. After a wave of news about the «bubble», hacking scandals and bans China, you can see the corrective movement, but they were within the intermediate correction pulse the phase of the Elliott wave, which lasted for a year. The peak phase was the predicted by many experts the level of around 20 000 dollars for bitcoin. Then began the phase of the corrective movement, and it is likely it formed under waves A-B-C.
As for the Fibonacci levels, the end of wave A has started in the area of 1.618%, below this level the prospect of reaching $ 10,000. This is a negative scenario.
BTC/USD H4: see the way out of the trend
In the four-hour period, the bitcoin broke the important support in the region of 15 947$. With this mark started a steady downward because it was a clear signal for a trend reversal. At the moment bitcoin has formed a range around 15 947 – 11 192 dollars. If a new wave of decline, we can expect to achieve the $ 11 192.
In the case of a positive scenario is expected to breakout of the mark 15 947 with a subsequent tendency to higher levels within the B wave (Elliott wave period D1). This scenario assumes the movement is not above a peak in the region of 20 000 USD per coin.
News that could affect the course of trading:
The EU intends to ban anonymous transactions and permit the exchange and the exchange to identify their clients;
technical Director Bitcoin.com Emil Oldenburg sold his bitcoins (BTC) and bought coins bitcoin cache (BCH);
South Korea recommends banks not to deal with cryptocurrencies;
The pessimistic statements of the Minister of Finance of Japan concerning bitcoin.
ETH/USD D1: where bitcoin goes, I go
The second largest and most popular cryptocurrency followed the bitcoin. The price chart broadcast on the day the period came to an important support near $ 500. This is the maximum of the third impulse wave. Then began a rapid rebound to the middle of the correction movement. The wave is likely that sales can stop and the air will stay at the same level. Do not forget that the ether is a different ecosystem of blockchain, and while the news of the introduction of the smart contracts in different business areas, you can see the new growth trends.
If you look at the graph from the point of view of the Elliot waves, corrective phase «begs». You can see the band movement within the A-B-C. in addition, if you look at the correction relative phase of growth, it is hardly deep. Therefore, it is expected to exit the range 860 – $ 500.
The negative scenario is a retracement to the area of $ 400 – this is an important support level, below which are the highs of June and September.
Important news — is the transition of a major project Kik with Ethereum, stellar. Such a statement is speculative is not in favor of ether.
ETH/USD H4: the output of trend
The negative scenario is a break of support trend with further consolidation in the range 800 – $ 600.
LTC/USD H4: the same range
Lydon and other cryptocurrencies suggests a downtrend. At the moment the fifth of the capitalization of cryptocurrency is in the range of 334 — $ 252 after trying to recover from a massive decline. Tactically it can hold support in the area of $ 252, but if this level is passed, then we can expect consolidation in the range of 252 – 146 dollars. Such a move could be justified from a technical point of view, since there is no explicit signals to the output of the generated trends.
However, the news also weighed on the current situation of litecoin. It became known that the founder of litecoin Charlie Lee sells a large amount of their coins. In his opinion, this is a necessary measure in order to avoid conflicts of interest. On the one hand, it is a positive signal on the cryptocurrency market, as made a major step in favor of transparency, and on the other to create a precedent, the panic selling (panic selling), as is often the case in liquid markets.
BCH/USD H4: support around 2000
Bitcoin cache (BCH) after an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above the $ 2,800 back in the range 2800 – $ 2,000. Also shows the presence within a rising trend, so the situation is the same with ether. Negative scenario — the attraction to the 2000 follow-up possible it breaks.
As for the news background while he is in favor of bitcoin cache, and yet «keeps afloat» the third of the capitalization of cryptocurrency.