In recent months there was much talk about «virtual dollars» Tether (tokens USDT), and about whether or not they provided dollars in the accounts of the company. In the community, it is widely believed that the massive emission of Tether and manipulation on the stock exchange Bitfinex caused the change of bitcoin last year.
However, post-graduate student of the University of Groningen in the Netherlands analysed the situation and came to the conclusion that the theory about the impact of the release of a large number of Tether on the price of bitcoin is untenable.
Two days ago, Alexander Ivanov, researcher of the University of Groningen, has published a «statistical view» on the theory of the interrelation of the Tether and the growth rate of bitcoin. Many believe that the issue USDT has led to significant price spikes bitcoin. In particular, it is stated in the study entitled «The Tether Report». However, Ivanov says that «correlation is in all cases close to zero».
«I approached this issue from a statistical point of view. If the expected Tether strategy is correct, we should see a positive correlation between the change in the amount of Tether and change bitcoin in a certain time frame,» — explained in the analysis of Ivanov.
Ivanov used the price of BTC over a long period of time with Coinmarketcap, as well as information on the amount of Tether released in 2017. He then calculated the daily change in the price of bitcoin and percentage daily change in the amount of Tether.
«Then I built a graph using these data and found that most of the points are at zero. Some of the dots in the right corner of the graph correspond to large percentage changes in the amount of Tether. It’s emissions. Interestingly, they mostly lie below the zero axis, the price change of bitcoin», explains the researcher.
The Pearson correlation coefficient of daily percent changes of bitcoin prices and daily percent changes in the number of Tether -0.17168 equal (value p = 0.001 that is statistically significant). Thus, there is a negative correlation between the change in the amount of Tether and the change of bitcoin».
The researcher also checked whether you have used Tether for pumping the price of BTC over a longer period of time. «Correlation in all cases is still close to zero,» — said Ivanov. His study does not confirm the opinion that the price of BTC is associated with the release of USDT. Although Ivanov explains that his statistical analysis does not necessarily disprove manipulation of the Tether.
«Transparent public audit of the Tether will shed light on this issue,» concludes Smith.
Some time ago we wrote about a billionth of the issue USDT, suspicious transactions on Bitfinex and their possible consequences, and also of the opinion that the issue of tokens and a half billion dollars in two months is not a significant reason for the growth of the cryptocurrency market. Alexander Ivanov is valuable because it brings the mathematical basis for this statement and refutes conspiracy theories on this subject, not backed by anything other than speculation.
Uncontrolled emission of tokens on such a huge amount, no doubt, raises concerns in their provision. And most likely will assume that these tokens are used for financial manipulation. But their sign may be the opposite.
Tokens Tether was originally conceived as a replacement of the dollar exchanges for those who can’t use real dollars for some reason. And they are quite successful in doing their job so far. In particular, she enjoys USDT Bitfinex in the spring of 2017, when she had problems with the banks. But most of the operations with the token falls on other exchanges. The volume USDT released until mid-December 2017, i.e. in the period of growth of the bitcoin is less than one third of the total emissions of tokens, and most of it occurs during the fall.
All the above facts indicate that Bitfinex and Tether increased the need for the replacement of real dollars for virtual in the fall of the cryptocurrency market. Selling tokens alithinou largest exchange — Poloniex, Binance, Bittrex, OKex, and Huobi is in the hundreds of millions of dollars each. Simply put, Tether and Bitfinex has accumulated more than two billion dollars in their accounts by giving its customers (including other major exchanges) tokens with questionable security.
The most important question here is how to use those dollars and whether the Tether to pay them when the ransom demand tokens. Perhaps Bitfinex and Tether «guilty» is not in growth, and in the fall of the cryptocurrency market. Perhaps they play these dollars against bitcoin in the short positions on the CME and CBOE. Maybe they bought a huge amount of bitcoins at the peak of prices and now are forced to issue tokens to cover the loss in dollars. But you can assume that all those dollars are long gone with the cryptocurrency market and participate in trading on stock exchanges, or Forex, or just lie in offshore accounts waiting for the right moment for the liquidation of both companies.
All these assumptions are not supported by the facts, but still have a certain amount of credibility. We’ll find out eventually, as is the case in reality. And while you can only state that the withdrawal of the Tether from the audit makes community more than a reasonable suspicion.