Over the past week, there were hopes that the cryptocurrency market will complete the reduction. Technically it looked quite realistic though, because a cryptocurrency has shown a sharp reversal in the beginning of the week formed against the downward trend. As for bitcoin «digital gold» showed strong reversal against the downward trend is a good signal for growth.
However, many of the cryptocurrency showed weekly growth and entrenched in the green zone, despite the relatively low after the December records the total capitalization of the market of about $330 billion it is also Important to note that the news last week carried a mild nature, without scandals and loud statements.
As for the most important news that affected the markets last week, I want special attention paid to the message last Sunday. A group of representatives of Central banks (FSB) said the lack of the risks of cryptocurrencies for the global economy. In the second half of the week, analysts Fundstrat Global Advisors, led by Tom Lee reassured the market that a further reduction may not be. The focus is only growth, but yet in a moderate way.
Now technical analysis:
BTC/USD: a new trend?
Bitcoin (BTC) after the release of the downward trend is entrenched in a higher trading under $9389 – $8342. This is a positive signal because the output of even a short-term trend suggests the beginning of a new trend. Thus, the opportunity to show another wave of decline seems unlikely, and as for growth, it opens the prospect of achieving the price levels of the beginning of March.
In addition, the price chart doesn’t want to go below the minimum in the neighborhood of $8342, also, this level serves as a reliable support. If the news background will support the cryptocurrency market, then from this level ($8342), you can see a new wave of growth in the direction of the uptrend.
As for the Elliott wave theory, the previous trend had a pronounced three-wave start structure. This chart tells about the end of the correction subcycle and the beginning of the new. Therefore, with the support of a positive news background you can see the wave structure in the framework 1 2 3 4 5 with the subsequent achievement of such levels as $9389 $1041.
In case of realization of a negative scenario is expected to consolidate in the range of $8342 – $7227.
ETH/USD H4: downtrend
The ether (ETH) holds below resistance near $564 is in turn a negative signal, as an attempt to overcome this barrier was not successful. Appears the likelihood of achieving the support at $452, and the reserve to this level is.
In addition, despite the stretching of the impulse wave Y within the composite correction W X Y still no visible signal on the oversold ether. Most likely, the trend of sales can continue to reach support at $344. In case of breaking the level of $564, a signal is output from the downward trend, and then you can see the consolidation in the trading under $668 -$564. If the output of the line of the downward trend, then we can talk about the formation of a new phase of the uptrend.
LTC/USD H4: when the output from the trend?
Litecoin (LTC), despite trying to get out of trend, is still below the trend line. However, restrains the price chart support at $158. This level is important since the history of trades shows that the graph of litecoin has repeatedly tested this price.
In addition, from the perspective of Elliott waves suggests a completion of corrective wave 2, which has the structure of a three-wave start in the framework of B And C. Therefore, the purchase of $158 will be decisive for the «digital silver». In this case, we can expect a test of resistance around $180 with the subsequent achievement of the next level in the neighborhood of $216.
It should also be noted that the schedule of prices faces a choice: continue to decline with the trend or to form a new phase of the upward movement. In positive scenario, we can expect movement in 1 2 3 4 5. But such a scenario is possible only when the price range is $180 -$158.
XRP/USD H4: holding above price support
RIPL (XRP) after unsuccessful attempts to overcome the important support level in the neighborhood of $0.5637 tried to turn around. Throughout the week, still dominated by bearish sentiment, therefore, was observed a tendency to a limiting level. However, RIPL is in the downward tendency, and it pushes the traders to sell. Thus, the break of support around $0.5637 can only increase sales with the subsequent consolidation in a lower trading limits.
If you look at the situation from the perspective of Elliott waves, we see the development of the downward momentum in the framework 1 2 3 4 5. If the sale will be in the spotlight, then open the prospect of reaching the $0.2080. Also do not forget that the last wave can be truncated, so the emergence of such formations may give a positive signal for growth, breaking the downtrend line.
A positive scenario for XRP is a tendency for resistance near $0.8707 and out of a downtrend. Then we can expect the formation of a new trend, and as a result, a new phase of the upward movement after the corrective A, B, C.
DSH/USD H4: soon exit the trend?
Dash (DSH) was not able to overcome the resistance around $450. This level is very important, because trading history shows that there have been repeated testing. In addition, the schedule of prices could not opustitsya to a local minimum in the neighborhood of $380, and it serves as a positive signal. Based on the current technical situation, it is possible to conclude that dash is technically ready to exit the downward trend.
In terms of Elliott waves, you can see the end of the composite correction in the framework of W X Y. the Last impulse wave Y ready to show completion. Therefore, the formation of a new phase of the upward movement seems likely, as in the case of bitcoin.
Also do not forget about the risks — if there is a negative news background, then you can expect to achieve support in the region of $380 with the subsequent breakout of this level. With a further reduction dash will test the support of $339.